How important is the “Bel Canto effect”?

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rkovars
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Re: How important is the “Bel Canto effect”?

Post by rkovars »

jkbarnes wrote: Sun Feb 12, 2023 2:44 pm This is a curious thread. I read the title and thought it was about how the Bel Canto might impact the brand. I read Kip’s post, and that suggested the thread’s about the impact on resale prices. I suppose they’re related.

I don’t know anything about market pricing, secondary markets, and all that, so I’ll not offer up my worthless analysis on all that.
A higher secondary market value brings an overall higher value to the brand. Secondary prices reflect what the market perceives the 'true value' of a brand to be. The closer the prices are to RRP the more value the brand is perceived to have within the market.

Over RRP on the secondary market would be an indicator that you did not price your product in line with market demand.
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Re: How important is the “Bel Canto effect”?

Post by sproughton »

I think it means that CW have impressed a lot of people with what they can do and I'm sure it'll have some impact on general sales but couldn't say how much.

I can't see it having much, if any, impact on future LE releases unless they are a similar level to the Bel Canto.
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Re: How important is the “Bel Canto effect”?

Post by JAFO »

rkovars wrote: Sun Feb 12, 2023 3:30 pm
jkbarnes wrote: Sun Feb 12, 2023 2:44 pm This is a curious thread. I read the title and thought it was about how the Bel Canto might impact the brand. I read Kip’s post, and that suggested the thread’s about the impact on resale prices. I suppose they’re related.

I don’t know anything about market pricing, secondary markets, and all that, so I’ll not offer up my worthless analysis on all that.
A higher secondary market value brings an overall higher value to the brand. Secondary prices reflect what the market perceives the 'true value' of a brand to be. The closer the prices are to RRP the more value the brand is perceived to have within the market.

Over RRP on the secondary market would be an indicator that you did not price your product in line with market demand.
I remain of the opinion that a SP of more than 3 x cost would be justified, even at the expense of some sales volume.
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Re: How important is the “Bel Canto effect”?

Post by rkovars »

JAFO wrote: Sun Feb 12, 2023 3:35 pm I remain of the opinion that a SP of more than 3 x cost would be justified, even at the expense of some sales volume.
Because they built the company on that formula, very publicly, I think it would be a tough lift to change it at this point.

With the sunsetting of the vouchers they have effectively raised the average RRP without changing prices. It will be interesting to see how this will affect volumes in the coming year. I think it is too early to tell one way or the other.

A bigger problem CW has, in my opinion, is convincing people who checked out the brand 10 or so years ago and dismissed it as another 'homage brand' and left. Many of them have not been back even though there is a vastly different product from then. The Bel Canto got a lot of these people to take a second look but there is more work to be done.
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Re: How important is the “Bel Canto effect”?

Post by timor54 »

I think the TradeTime is really an outlier and oddity. It was produced exclusively for a 'club' of day traders who's ethos is short-term gambling on assets. There's probably no reason why they would treat a watch any differently; buy something that's exclusive at a discounted price and quickly sell it on for a profit. I'd guess most of these exorbitantly priced sales aren't to regular CW enthusiasts but rather to other members of the same club.
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Re: How important is the “Bel Canto effect”?

Post by albionphoto »

The Bel Canto raised the watch community's awareness of the brand. It has meant that CW has, briefly, gone from a brand that inspired indifference to a brand that is now riding a wave of popularity and good will. This wave may well peter out quite quickly. The C60 Concept did not do this and neither did the C7 Apex (GPHG and all). The product planners at CW probably didn't anticipate this aspect of the Bel Canto effect. It will be very interesting to see what happens to the second hand prices of Bel Canto's once the series models become available.

A second aspect of the Bel Canto is that it has shown CW that they can compete at a higher price point. That's a good thing. The trick will be maintaining momentum so that the next halo model which is allegedly due in 2024 can still ride the Bel Canto wave.

I have no idea what's going on with the Trade Time either.

I'm not sure if I agree about CW's long term creativity. They wouldn't have earned the reputation as being a "homage" watch brand if that was the case. A lot of their designs were nice and well executed but creative? I'm not so sure. Take the Aquitaine as an example. It is a clever use of materials (sapphire bezel) but it is not original. It's a long way from being original and it sits in a space that was well populated by cheap micro-brands anyway. There is a lot of merit in following market trends such as smaller watches but I'm not sure the Blancpain fifty fathoms from 1953 was ever a market favourite or trendsetter.

I am a little puzzled by the tsunami of lower priced LEs we've seen so far this year. They keep the faithful motivated but seem like an exercise in keeping production at a certain level rather than anything else. I'm waiting to see what are the big releases in 2023 before saying anything else. If SH21 2.0 comes out this year it will be interesting to see how CW markets it and what watches it goes into. Oris did a much better job of making Calibre 400 a plus point for them. CW should maybe learn from that. Maybe the SH21 2.0s will be in the $1500 - $2500 range. That should be what CW aim for IMO.
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Re: How important is the “Bel Canto effect”?

Post by JasH »

Bel Canto doesn't surprise me, given its beauty, sonnerie feature and finishing.

The Tradetime shocked me though.
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Re: How important is the “Bel Canto effect”?

Post by Noush »

I know little about secondary markets and the like and don't much care to.
I buy watches because I expect to enjoy them, which can be for all sorts of reasons, and that is that.

But I've spent a lot of years involved with a variety of businesses and if I'm putting myself in Mike France's shoes I think I see where this is going.
The discount vouchers, a feature of the marketing over some years, are gone. There's more buzz for the brand and the entry level pricing is very competitive without them. The LE's of Sealanders make for a bit of spice at that price level.
I believe CW are true to their declared cost/sell ratios and that is going to keep more money in the sale on average. Needed to be done.

The halo models are getting people across the idea that CW deserves its place a tier or two up from their core marketplace that's been established by the likes of Trident Pro. And it does.
What I don't know is what the production capacity of SH21.2 is going to be. Is this new movement as much about being able to build a bunch more of them and make it a more mainstream (albeit at a premium) option? A-la Oris 400 calibre. Up till now SH21 has only been in limited-build models. My hunch is it will be a more versatile movement insofar as they have more options to place it in the model ranges.

So if you are building X amount of watches and the market accepts that it is prepared to pay more on average to put a CW on their wrist, whilst maintaining the entry-point, this is a solid strategy for the brand.

Not only do we see this at Oris, but also the likes of Grand Seiko. Even with their new(ish) production facility, they have a production cap and they are there now. So GS are finding ways of making their watches 'carry' a higher price tag. Average price up, more money made on a limited manufacture number. That's business. I think GS is walking a tightrope and while that is a discussion for elsewhere on this forum, I do think Mike France is paying attention.
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Re: How important is the “Bel Canto effect”?

Post by albionphoto »

Noush wrote: Tue Feb 14, 2023 11:52 am But I've spent a lot of years involved with a variety of businesses and if I'm putting myself in Mike France's shoes I think I see where this is going.
The discount vouchers, a feature of the marketing over some years, are gone. There's more buzz for the brand and the entry level pricing is very competitive without them. The LE's of Sealanders make for a bit of spice at that price level.
I believe CW are true to their declared cost/sell ratios and that is going to keep more money in the sale on average. Needed to be done.

The halo models are getting people across the idea that CW deserves its place a tier or two up from their core marketplace that's been established by the likes of Trident Pro. And it does.
What I don't know is what the production capacity of SH21.2 is going to be. Is this new movement as much about being able to build a bunch more of them and make it a more mainstream (albeit at a premium) option? A-la Oris 400 calibre. Up till now SH21 has only been in limited-build models. My hunch is it will be a more versatile movement insofar as they have more options to place it in the model ranges.

So if you are building X amount of watches and the market accepts that it is prepared to pay more on average to put a CW on their wrist, whilst maintaining the entry-point, this is a solid strategy for the brand.
Apologies for some selective editing but this is a great post. I have long wondered about CWs production capacity and how they grow with that constraint. There are a number of ways to go and you're example of Grand Seiko was a good one. I do think CW understand this and are working out how to maximise the opportunity.
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