April 3, 2025

This is not a political post.

As many are already aware, the USA is embarking on an international tariff program. What concerns us here are the UK and Switzerland. At the time of writing this, the tariffs are expected to be 10% on goods imported from the UK and 31% on imports from Switzerland, into the USA.

How will this affect Christopher Ward? I can tell you that I have spoken with Mike France and Sarah Bauman at CW and this is their statement.

"Like every company who is affected by the announcements about the new tariffs, we are working out how the new process will work. We don’t want you to incur additional charges unnecessarily until the detail is worked out.

So we’re going to pause shipping for one week until the situation becomes clearer about how the new tariffs will work and be charged. We are sorry that your shipment will be slightly delayed, but we hope you understand, and we’ll be sending out an email to everyone in the US to communicate once we have more information.

All back orders will be honoured so please don’t worry about getting your watch.

Our website will be updated to honour the new tariffs (which we anticipate are 31%). However, if the tariff levels or process should change or reduce after your purchase, you will be refunded the difference.

The pause in USA shipments will begin on Friday April 4. What WILL happen from Saturday and the following Wednesday is that USA customers buying online will see the additional costs they will be occurring, and this will be indicated on their Order Confirmation. If these should change prior to when we ship, we will refund the difference."

You are free to discuss the subject regarding economics but political discussion is still not permitted.

There is also a post here referencing a USA maker offering an opinion.

I always envied US buyers for having much smaller taxes, looks like the tables have drastically turned. But this is still bad overall, this kind of economic policy will likely hurt buyers like us the most in the long run, regardless of country.

Unless I misunderstand the meaning of the statement, it seems to be purchase your watch by tomorrow Friday April 4th to avoid the possible 31% tariff increase for USA customers even if the shipping is delayed a week (or more).

I think the tariffs are going to push the US economy into a recession because our economy is consumer driven and most people will stop purchasing unless it is absolutely necessary. The average American simply cannot afford a 10% (or more) increase on everything they purchase.

This is not a political post…

You are free to discuss the subject regarding economics but political discussion is still not permitted.

Like it or not, the new US tariff policy and its implications are fundamentally political. I don’t know how one can discuss it in any meaningful way without it being political. I’m curious to see how discussion here shakes out.

I think the approach is ok from CW but fundamentally would deter US buyers as the value proposition would drop (as it would from any other brand)
As a percentage how many sales are from the US?
I feel like this might end up affecting all other sales to compensate for the potential loss of sales from the US. Would the price go up to mitigate losses from the US for the rest of the world?

Maverick_John wrote: ↑Thu Apr 03, 2025 10:31 pm I think the approach is ok from CW but fundamentally would deter US buyers as the value proposition would drop (as it would from any other brand)
As a percentage how many sales are from the US?
I feel like this might end up affecting all other sales to compensate for the potential loss of sales from the US. Would the price go up to mitigate losses from the US for the rest of the world?

Prices will have to go up if you lose a large percentage of the biggest consumer base (by purchasing power) in the world. Hopefully this will all be temporary.

Rusty Strings wrote: ↑Thu Apr 03, 2025 11:16 pm

Maverick_John wrote: ↑Thu Apr 03, 2025 10:31 pm I think the approach is ok from CW but fundamentally would deter US buyers as the value proposition would drop (as it would from any other brand)
As a percentage how many sales are from the US?
I feel like this might end up affecting all other sales to compensate for the potential loss of sales from the US. Would the price go up to mitigate losses from the US for the rest of the world?

Prices will have to go up if you lose a large percentage of the biggest consumer base (by purchasing power) in the world. Hopefully this will all be temporary.

I suspected as such. And I kind of almost knew the percentage was going to be quite large.
This could be a forced inflation for the company which has seen quite stagnant pricing.
I'd like to think it's temporary but feel it will be a more permanent move. Well hopefully it opens the door to more sales.

CW pricing is 3x Manufacturing Cost. Unless they change that principle, then prices (before tariffs) won't change. But the tariffs will make the end price for US customers increase substantially. Inevitably, that will result in lower US sales, which will impact CW's overall results, but I don't see that they will change their pricing philosophy to counterbalance this.

Also, I think there is a fair chance of some sort of exemption being agreed between Switzerland and the US for watches and watch parts, as there is not really much of a US watch manufacturing industry to protect, particularly when you look at movements. But who knows?

Maverick_John wrote: ↑Fri Apr 04, 2025 12:27 am

Rusty Strings wrote: ↑Thu Apr 03, 2025 11:16 pm

Maverick_John wrote: ↑Thu Apr 03, 2025 10:31 pm I think the approach is ok from CW but fundamentally would deter US buyers as the value proposition would drop (as it would from any other brand)
As a percentage how many sales are from the US?
I feel like this might end up affecting all other sales to compensate for the potential loss of sales from the US. Would the price go up to mitigate losses from the US for the rest of the world?

Prices will have to go up if you lose a large percentage of the biggest consumer base (by purchasing power) in the world. Hopefully this will all be temporary.

I suspected as such. And I kind of almost knew the percentage was going to be quite large.
This could be a forced inflation for the company which has seen quite stagnant pricing.
I'd like to think it's temporary but feel it will be a more permanent move. Well hopefully it opens the door to more sales.

I don't think America has the political will to put up with it for an extended period of time. Hopefully countries will renegotiate trade over the next few months, and we'll see these tariffs lifted, or at least drastically reduced.

welshlad wrote: ↑Fri Apr 04, 2025 1:14 am CW pricing is 3x Manufacturing Cost. Unless they change that principle, then prices (before tariffs) won't change. But the tariffs will make the end price for US customers increase substantially. Inevitably, that will result in lower US sales, which will impact CW's overall results, but I don't see that they will change their pricing philosophy to counterbalance this.

Also, I think there is a fair chance of some sort of exemption being agreed between Switzerland and the US for watches and watch parts, as there is not really much of a US watch manufacturing industry to protect, particularly when you look at movements. But who knows?

I'm a little confused as I'm not very familiar with CW's business model, but are the watches not exported from the UK as opposed to Switzerland?

welshlad wrote: ↑Fri Apr 04, 2025 1:14 am …Also, I think there is a fair chance of some sort of exemption being agreed between Switzerland and the US for watches and watch parts, as there is not really much of a US watch manufacturing industry to protect, particularly when you look at movements. But who knows?

That assumes a level of analysis and reasoned thinking that stands in stark contrast to the fundamental nature of this entire policy. If and when things change, it won’t be because of something that makes economic sense like this.

Rusty Strings wrote: ↑Fri Apr 04, 2025 1:22 am I don't think America has the political will to put up with it for an extended period of time. Hopefully countries will renegotiate trade over the next few months, and we'll see these tariffs lifted, or at least drastically reduced.

You underestimate the “will power” of the average American.

I want to extend my appreciation to Kip, Mike & Sarah for reaching out & giving us some idea of what to expect. Sitting here on the other side of the pond. I have been wondering how soon the changes would take effect. I do have some appreciation for how difficult it must be to run a business with this much uncertainty. As for the economics of the matter, there is no doubt that the new tariffs will hurt U.S. sales directly & indirectly if left in place for an extended period of time. It is my understanding that U.S. sales are a growing & significant part of Christopher Ward’s business, so all of this matters. I hadn’t thought about the tariff’s being based on the watch movement’s Swiss origin but that would certainly be true. I have bought enough watches to understand that customs has always been interested in where the movement comes from. That is the thing about big disruptions like this. It can be complicated with many unintended consequences. I am not an expert but I can’t imagine this helping the few surviving U.S. based watch manufacturers as almost all of them import their movements from Japan & Switzerland. Even the straps come from abroad. I don’t think that they would survive long enough to make a transition to all domestic manufacture. Back to Christopher Ward, as I am already worrying about the company’s future. What will this do to their Dallas showroom which they just got up & running?

Delmar

jkbarnes wrote: ↑Fri Apr 04, 2025 1:29 am

Rusty Strings wrote: ↑Fri Apr 04, 2025 1:22 am I don't think America has the political will to put up with it for an extended period of time. Hopefully countries will renegotiate trade over the next few months, and we'll see these tariffs lifted, or at least drastically reduced.

You underestimate the “will power” of the average American.

I disagree.

Fortunately today’s stock market performance made sure I can’t afford a watch for a while anyway.