Rusty Strings wrote: ↑Fri Apr 04, 2025 1:23 am

welshlad wrote: ↑Fri Apr 04, 2025 1:14 am CW pricing is 3x Manufacturing Cost. Unless they change that principle, then prices (before tariffs) won't change. But the tariffs will make the end price for US customers increase substantially. Inevitably, that will result in lower US sales, which will impact CW's overall results, but I don't see that they will change their pricing philosophy to counterbalance this.

Also, I think there is a fair chance of some sort of exemption being agreed between Switzerland and the US for watches and watch parts, as there is not really much of a US watch manufacturing industry to protect, particularly when you look at movements. But who knows?

I'm a little confused as I'm not very familiar with CW's business model, but are the watches not exported from the UK as opposed to Switzerland?

That has very little to do with anything. The watches are made in Switzerland and so, unfortunately for Americans, attract the 31% export tariff and not the 10% UK tariff (regardless of the fact they shop from the UK)

Rusty Strings wrote: ↑Fri Apr 04, 2025 1:23 am I'm a little confused as I'm not very familiar with CW's business model, but are the watches not exported from the UK as opposed to Switzerland?

Fundamentally, the tariffs are based on the country where the product is made and CW's watches are clearly described as "Swiss Made", so it is the Swiss tariff (31%) that applies rather than UK tariff (10%). If it was based on which country sent the product to the US, everybody would simply send their products to the UK first (or another 10% country) and get them sent on to the US from there.

EDIT: Kev got there first!

kev017 wrote: ↑Fri Apr 04, 2025 1:55 am

Rusty Strings wrote: ↑Fri Apr 04, 2025 1:23 am

welshlad wrote: ↑Fri Apr 04, 2025 1:14 am CW pricing is 3x Manufacturing Cost. Unless they change that principle, then prices (before tariffs) won't change. But the tariffs will make the end price for US customers increase substantially. Inevitably, that will result in lower US sales, which will impact CW's overall results, but I don't see that they will change their pricing philosophy to counterbalance this.

Also, I think there is a fair chance of some sort of exemption being agreed between Switzerland and the US for watches and watch parts, as there is not really much of a US watch manufacturing industry to protect, particularly when you look at movements. But who knows?

I'm a little confused as I'm not very familiar with CW's business model, but are the watches not exported from the UK as opposed to Switzerland?

That has very little to do with anything. The watches are made in Switzerland and so, unfortunately for Americans, attract the 31% export tariff and not the 10% UK tariff (regardless of the fact they shop from the UK)

That makes sense, thanks.

welshlad wrote: ↑Fri Apr 04, 2025 1:59 am

Rusty Strings wrote: ↑Fri Apr 04, 2025 1:23 am I'm a little confused as I'm not very familiar with CW's business model, but are the watches not exported from the UK as opposed to Switzerland?

Fundamentally, the tariffs are based on the country where the product is made and CW's watches are clearly described as "Swiss Made", so it is the Swiss tariff (31%) that applies rather than UK tariff (10%). If it was based on which country sent the product to the US, everybody would simply send their products to the UK first (or another 10% country) and get them sent on to the US from there.

EDIT: Kev got there first!

Thank you as well.

jkbarnes wrote: ↑Thu Apr 03, 2025 9:04 pm

This is not a political post…

You are free to discuss the subject regarding economics but political discussion is still not permitted.

Like it or not, the new US tariff policy and its implications are fundamentally political. I don’t know how one can discuss it in any meaningful way without it being political. I’m curious to see how discussion here shakes out.

I think discussing the implications of the change is fair. I'm sure it's something that affects us all. In the UK we probably buy more US stuff than we realise.

JAFO wrote: ↑Fri Apr 04, 2025 10:56 am

jkbarnes wrote: ↑Thu Apr 03, 2025 9:04 pm

This is not a political post…

You are free to discuss the subject regarding economics but political discussion is still not permitted.

Like it or not, the new US tariff policy and its implications are fundamentally political. I don’t know how one can discuss it in any meaningful way without it being political. I’m curious to see how discussion here shakes out.

I think discussing the implications of the change is fair. I'm sure it's something that affects us all. In the UK we probably buy more US stuff than we realise.

My original comment wasn’t so much about what is and isn’t fair game to talk about. I love a good political discussion. My point was that I see the two so intertwined with the topic of tariffs that has does one talk about one without drifting into the other?

JAFO wrote: ↑Fri Apr 04, 2025 10:56 am

jkbarnes wrote: ↑Thu Apr 03, 2025 9:04 pm

This is not a political post…

You are free to discuss the subject regarding economics but political discussion is still not permitted.

Like it or not, the new US tariff policy and its implications are fundamentally political. I don’t know how one can discuss it in any meaningful way without it being political. I’m curious to see how discussion here shakes out.

I think discussing the implications of the change is fair. I'm sure it's something that affects us all. In the UK we probably buy more US stuff than we realise.

I have been thinking what USA stuff I “buy”…

I have iPhones and iPads and use Google. I probably have a few bottles of wine from California, although haven’t bought any for a while. As far as stuff from the USA that’s it.

What USA stuff do you buy?

Neil

nbg wrote: ↑Fri Apr 04, 2025 11:12 am

JAFO wrote: ↑Fri Apr 04, 2025 10:56 am

jkbarnes wrote: ↑Thu Apr 03, 2025 9:04 pm

Like it or not, the new US tariff policy and its implications are fundamentally political. I don’t know how one can discuss it in any meaningful way without it being political. I’m curious to see how discussion here shakes out.

I think discussing the implications of the change is fair. I'm sure it's something that affects us all. In the UK we probably buy more US stuff than we realise.

I have been thinking what USA stuff I “buy”…

I have iPhones and iPads and use Google. I probably have a few bottles of wine from California, although haven’t bought any for a while. As far as stuff from the USA that’s it.

What USA stuff do you buy?

Neil

Is an iPhone even “stuff from the USA?” It may be sold by an American company, but its parts are sourced mostly overseas and it’s made overseas.

I have to imagine iPhones sold in the US will be subject to tariffs. And no amount of tariff will bring its manufacture back to the US because the workforce to build them really doesn’t exist here.

jkbarnes wrote: ↑Fri Apr 04, 2025 11:21 am I have to imagine iPhones sold in the US will be subject to tariffs. And no amount of tariff will bring its manufacture back to the US because the workforce to build them really doesn’t exist here.

Yes, and that is why Apple's share price has dropped a lot over the last day or so (-9.25% yesterday, for example).

@jkbarnes
Absolutely Drew, I was initially going to add a bit in brackets about the reality of the Apple stuff being made outside the USA. Then decided to leave it out, as it’s a simple illustration of things tend not to be as simple as some folk think.

Neil

nbg wrote: ↑Fri Apr 04, 2025 11:31 am …things tend not to be as simple as some folk think.

That’s the heart of the matter concerning all of this, isn’t it?

@nbg It looks like the UK imported $60b in US goods in 2023. For commodities the big player was machinery and transport equipment. In many ways this contributes the pricing for anything moved around or manufactured within the UK.

The second largest area is another $60b services - banking, legal, consulting etc. I'm not sure how any of this is tariffed by the UK.

What hasn't been mentioned yet is that the calculations also take into account any currency manipulation (I want to be clear that this is the fuzziest part of their math). This would include any type of austerity and quantitative easing. Switzerland was designated by U.S. treasury as a manipulator in 2023 largely for actions that were taken during the pandemic to prop up the Swiss Franc. Their efforts tripped a three part test that treasury uses - 1. Bilateral trade surplus with the U.S. of at least $15b, currency intervention higher than 2% GDP and budget surpluses of more than 3% of GDP.

It does appear to me that the currency manipulation was not applied evenly or across the board.

jkbarnes wrote: ↑Fri Apr 04, 2025 11:21 am

nbg wrote: ↑Fri Apr 04, 2025 11:12 am

JAFO wrote: ↑Fri Apr 04, 2025 10:56 am

I think discussing the implications of the change is fair. I'm sure it's something that affects us all. In the UK we probably buy more US stuff than we realise.

I have been thinking what USA stuff I “buy”…

I have iPhones and iPads and use Google. I probably have a few bottles of wine from California, although haven’t bought any for a while. As far as stuff from the USA that’s it.

What USA stuff do you buy?

Neil

Is an iPhone even “stuff from the USA?” It may be sold by an American company, but its parts are sourced mostly overseas and it’s made overseas.

I have to imagine iPhones sold in the US will be subject to tariffs. And no amount of tariff will bring its manufacture back to the US because the workforce to build them really doesn’t exist here.

Apple products are the only physical ‘US’ products I really purchase and for which there is no alternative that I’m willing to consider.

All iPhones and such are manufactured in China and I can’t see that will change in the foreseeable future; therefore it seems likely that US consumers are looking at a circa. 25% price increase unless Apple absorbs some or all of the tariffs.

I’m personally more interested it what the impact will be in the EU/UK. I don’t know for sure but I’m assuming that Apple physically ship products from China to their EU HQ in Cork or maybe directly to the major country markets? Therefore not landing in the USA and in theory bypassing their customs processes. Where does that leave Apple EU with regards to these tariffs and consequently the impact on EU/UK prices?

@rkovars
I am well aware of the amounts and breakdown of goods and services that the UK imports from the USA.

Presumably folk in the USA are aware how much more “USA made” cars and trucks will cost because of the tariffs…

The economics of the tariffs…

A good time for multi millionaires and billionaires. Not so good for anyone else.

Neil

A good clear message from CW. Thanks @Kip for organising.