Winter Sale - Extreme Disappointment

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Re: Winter Sale - Extreme Disappointment

Post by nycWATCHnerd »

Don't forget inflation's impact on the value of the dollar/pound/euro because they are not worth as much today as they were not that long ago. Factor into the equation that "real" prices have not really not gone up and one gets so much more today from CWL than you did in the past.

I have posted this before but Mark from Long Island Watch did a great video about this regarding Seiko pricing.


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Re: Winter Sale - Extreme Disappointment

Post by PGR101 »

Victor88 wrote: Thu Jan 09, 2025 2:55 pm I was hoping to see a few older pieces reappear as if by magic. A Beast or Bumblebeast. Or perhaps even a C9 5 Day Small Second.
Always worth checking Ward Hoard for old models as Greg has a good selection on sale but he’s always on the lookout so if you let him know what you are after he might find one. Seen a couple of bumble beasts on there in the past and was tempted!
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Re: Winter Sale - Extreme Disappointment

Post by jbm90 »

PGR101 wrote: Fri Jan 10, 2025 8:48 am
Victor88 wrote: Thu Jan 09, 2025 2:55 pm I was hoping to see a few older pieces reappear as if by magic. A Beast or Bumblebeast. Or perhaps even a C9 5 Day Small Second.
Always worth checking Ward Hoard for old models as Greg has a good selection on sale but he’s always on the lookout so if you let him know what you are after he might find one. Seen a couple of bumble beasts on there in the past and was tempted!
Bumblebeasts seem to come up on eBay or the CWE group quite regularly at decent prices, in quite good condition
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Re: Winter Sale - Extreme Disappointment

Post by Mikkei4 »

A1soknownas wrote: Fri Jan 10, 2025 1:04 am Your post seems to be a reference to the points I made but has seemed to have interpreted an alternative meaning to what I intended.

Our thoughts may actually be more aligned than apart...

That is exactly the point I made so we fully agree :thumbup:
I'm sorry, I didn't mean for my comments to point at your post. It was getting late so I did a quick reply. I should have left it until I had the time to create a proper reply with quotes from various other members posts so I didn't give alternative meanings.

:thumbup:
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Re: Winter Sale - Extreme Disappointment

Post by A1soknownas »

If only we were back in 2018. I got a C60 300 quartz for £207 in the sale. £264 now according to Bank of England calculator.

Had it a year, sold it on ebay for a profit and got a C60 600 Trident Pro Mk 3 for £705 outside of the sale period.

According to inflation the £705 would be £883 today. With C60 300 watches going for £915, I assume if a 600m version came out it would retail at £1k+. The Mark 3 is of modern design and construction so would not be so far off a newer release.

I think we have seen a general trend in watch increases beyond inflation anyway due to both external pricing factors such as labour and materials but also a greater demand than ever and wiliness of the public to accept higher prices as the norm - Especially when most of the bigger brands do it.

Occasionally there are some reminders of lower prices. For example Yema have a sale now - I'm not saying the quality is as good though. 3 hander auto at £311 and a 300m dive watch at £401.
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Re: Winter Sale - Extreme Disappointment

Post by nycWATCHnerd »

A1soknownas wrote: Fri Jan 10, 2025 12:39 pm I think we have seen a general trend in watch increases beyond inflation anyway due to both external pricing factors such as labour and materials but also a greater demand than ever and wiliness of the public to accept higher prices as the norm - Especially when most of the bigger brands do it.
Rolex (and most other major brands) increase prices every year.
Recently, JLC raised prices 40% in one update.

Watch prices will keep increasing at the current rate until demand slows. The grey/secondary market is already seeing that correction. The primary market may take longer because many brands are still drunk on the profits they made during the pandemic when people were flush with cash.

CWL had it's best year ever in 2024 so we can expect prices to keep increasing. Their suppliers will increase costs to CWL, so CWL will raise prices accordingly.
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Re: Winter Sale - Extreme Disappointment

Post by A1soknownas »

nycWATCHnerd wrote: Fri Jan 10, 2025 1:06 pm
A1soknownas wrote: Fri Jan 10, 2025 12:39 pm I think we have seen a general trend in watch increases beyond inflation anyway due to both external pricing factors such as labour and materials but also a greater demand than ever and wiliness of the public to accept higher prices as the norm - Especially when most of the bigger brands do it.
Rolex (and most other major brands) increase prices every year.
Recently, JLC raised prices 40% in one update.

Watch prices will keep increasing at the current rate until demand slows. The grey/secondary market is already seeing that correction. The primary market may take longer because many brands are still drunk on the profits they made during the pandemic when people were flush with cash.

CWL had it's best year ever in 2024 so we can expect prices to keep increasing. Their suppliers will increase costs to CWL, so CWL will raise prices accordingly.
Agreed, prices will continue increasing as they do everywhere and with everything else.

The interesting part for me is where increases are due to reflecting cost impacts which is understandable or where they are as a result of strategic decision making.

Where someone increases by 40%, I assume it is because they want to reposition or maintain their position relative to others. They are all non essential luxury goods and the higher you go up the chain the less likely the demand will drop because of an increase in price, it might even go up!

Also the change in range from CW is revealing. By introducing and slowly moving a C60 300 up in price it replaces the 600 spot and when and if one is ever released either in a limited edition or permanent range it will be at a much inflated price but it will be accepted as it has better specs than the 300 and is also cheaper than a Bel Canto so seems like a deal. And if there is a sale with 20% off it will seem even better.
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Re: Winter Sale - Extreme Disappointment

Post by akirk »

All good analysis - and not to forget that CW have now had 20 years of analysing buying trends / getting to know their customers...

However, the slight difference with CW is that they have committed to retail price of 3x cost price - which means that if they push prices up it should logically tie to spending more on cost - either because supply costs have increased, or because they are spending more on quality / complexity / features
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Re: Winter Sale - Extreme Disappointment

Post by nycWATCHnerd »

akirk wrote: Fri Jan 10, 2025 5:14 pm All good analysis - and not to forget that CW have now had 20 years of analysing buying trends / getting to know their customers...

However, the slight difference with CW is that they have committed to retail price of 3x cost price - which means that if they push prices up it should logically tie to spending more on cost - either because supply costs have increased, or because they are spending more on quality / complexity / features
Do not forget "marketing costs" that factor into the 3x. They do seem to be spending much more on marketing, and more expensive marketing, these days. As an example, that spot in the Time and Tide store in London is not free.
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Re: Winter Sale - Extreme Disappointment

Post by akirk »

I wouldn't expect marketing to be in cost prices
cost should be cost of watch delivered to this shore
marketing is under overheads etc.

3x is presumably something like
- cost 1/3
- overheads 1/3
- profits and poss tax etc. 1/3
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Re: Winter Sale - Extreme Disappointment

Post by exHowfener »

Do not forget "marketing costs" that factor into the 3x. They do seem to be spending much more on marketing, and more expensive marketing, these days. As an example, that spot in the Time and Tide store in London is not free.
The "3x cost" is much quoted on the forum. I'm not disagreeing, but only CW's management team and accountants know how cost is arrived at and how it is apportioned across the range. There are several ways to do this, all legal and each will arrive at a different "cost" figure.
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Re: Winter Sale - Extreme Disappointment

Post by nbg »

nycWATCHnerd wrote: Fri Jan 10, 2025 1:06 pm Rolex (and most other major brands) increase prices every year.
Not the first time I have seen the incorrect statement that Rolex increase prices every year! :lol:

They certainly haven’t increased prices every year since I first became interested in the brand.

Most years isn’t every year.

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Re: Winter Sale - Extreme Disappointment

Post by Timishere »

exHowfener wrote: Fri Jan 10, 2025 5:46 pm
Do not forget "marketing costs" that factor into the 3x. They do seem to be spending much more on marketing, and more expensive marketing, these days. As an example, that spot in the Time and Tide store in London is not free.
The "3x cost" is much quoted on the forum. I'm not disagreeing, but only CW's management team and accountants know how cost is arrived at and how it is apportioned across the range. There are several ways to do this, all legal and each will arrive at a different "cost" figure.
I've always thought that...the 3x cost is a primarily a nice marketing story (but the watches are great value vs others so I'm not complaining)
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Re: Winter Sale - Extreme Disappointment

Post by rkovars »

Mike France has stated in public that it was 3x manufacturing cost. My rough napkin math without knowledge of the deals that CW has with suppliers (for example I am certain CW doesn't pay RRP for movements they are too high in volume for that) over the years have been pretty close to 3x what it would cost to build. The wild cards are the Bel Cantos as those I don't personally have any reference for. I have no idea how much it would cost to manufacture the parts 'above the dial' but I bet it isn't cheap.
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Re: Winter Sale - Extreme Disappointment

Post by nycWATCHnerd »

nbg wrote: Fri Jan 10, 2025 7:04 pm
nycWATCHnerd wrote: Fri Jan 10, 2025 1:06 pm Rolex (and most other major brands) increase prices every year.
Not the first time I have seen the incorrect statement that Rolex increase prices every year! :lol:

They certainly haven’t increased prices every year since I first became interested in the brand.
Most years isn’t every year.
They may not raise prices on every watch every year but they do raises prices on some/different watches every year.
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