Used vs new prices

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Timishere
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Used vs new prices

Post by Timishere »

Hi everyone,

Another newbie question, so please redirect me if this has been covered already (I did look at the reference section on used sales prices already).

As a rule of thumb what is the consensus on depreciation for CW watches for a non special edition / still available after 1 year / 2 years / 3 years assuming excellent condition?

For example what is a "reasonable offer" for a used watch a year old? I'm looking to pick up a pre-owned watch and most of the posts talk about making sensible offers, and I don't want to annoy people by not doing so!

Of course, maybe there is no rule of thumb, in which case ignore me! :shock:

Thanks!
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Amor Vincit Omnia
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Re: Used vs new prices

Post by Amor Vincit Omnia »

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Re: Used vs new prices

Post by Timishere »

Thanks Steve, I did look at that but I couldn't see the % depreciation based on age as the graphs only showed sales price by year. Maybe I missed something though!
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Re: Used vs new prices

Post by Amor Vincit Omnia »

If you are looking on the forum, it is a requirement for the seller to state a price. If you are looking to undercut that, then you need to use your judgement.

If you are looking at other platforms, of course, YMMV.

I don’t think it is much of an exact science, to be honest. Your offer will either be accepted or it won’t, and if it isn’t you can always make a higher offer and try to meet in the middle.
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Re: Used vs new prices

Post by Timishere »

Hi Steve

Yes, i saw that in the rules of sales corner - good idea. But also, some of them (I think) say they are open to offers. So that is the gist of question. I definitely get the sense that the community isn't the place for aggressive undercutting so that isn't the point of the question (besides which, as a newbie I can't post in there anyway!).

Useful to know though if there is no general rule, as there is for used cars say where one knows you lose 30 pct on the way out of the showroom unless buying something with limited availability.

Anyway, thanks for the insight and hopefully my motives are clear enough!
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Re: Used vs new prices

Post by Amor Vincit Omnia »

You mention not being able to post in Sales Corner, Tim. That’s not so important. You can of course see it by now, and another of the rules is that all negotiations including offers and the swapping of addresses and bank details must be done via PM or email, definitely not on the thread.
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Re: Used vs new prices

Post by kiter65 »

I always go by WHAT am I prepared to pay for something...a seller can asked whatever he/she likes, doesn’t mean it’s the right price for you or the watch. If you are looking on the forums S/C the prices on there are normally pretty good so I wouldn’t be low balling to much but you can always make an offer, if the price isn’t for you walk away :thumbup:
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Re: Used vs new prices

Post by H0rati0 »

I think you are trying to be too systematic about this.

IMHO an acceptable offer varies depending on the given interest level in the particular watch and the seller's circumstance eg wanting a quick sale or prepared to wait for the right buyer. There is no convenient formula for depreciation vs time and even if there were it would vary dramatically by model (LEs being no exception) and point in time. What's hot today maybe decidedly chilly tomorrow.

From my own buying experiences (outside the forum) speaking very generally I reckon that an excellent condition SH watch is worth something like RRP - 30 to 50% and an acceptable offer will pitch around asking price less 10%. Personally, I like to get a "no" back against my first offer. Of course a specific brand and/or desirable model will command higher, possibly much higher prices, with sellers not open to offers at all, so one really has to DYOR and only you can determine what you are prepared to pay to snag a particular watch.

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Re: Used vs new prices

Post by Amor Vincit Omnia »

This is probably going to get nominated for Cynical Post of the Year.

However, here goes. Whenever you see a watch in Sales Corner, ask yourself why it is there. The simplistic and inevitable answer is that the owner doesn’t want it anymore. Now there may well be all sorts of reasons for that, but more often than not the owner has found something they like better. The watch isn’t being worn and has fallen out of favour.

It may be that some people are selling watches out of genuine need or hardship, and I wouldn’t want to put them in the same bracket.

I could name on the fingers of one hand certain members of this forum whose watches in Sales Corner invariably sell within hours. You might ask yourself why. In my opinion, it is because they are attractive watches that have been priced sensibly.

Equally, I could show you watches that have been bumped on Sales Corner many times. There are usually two possible reasons for this, either they have been priced too high and the seller is unwilling to reduce, or they are not particularly attractive watches. Someone bought a pig in a poke and wants rid of it.

Sorry, but that’s the way I see it. If you want something in Sales Corner but you don’t like the price, don’t overthink it: offer what you are prepared to pay and if that’s not acceptable walk away.
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Re: Used vs new prices

Post by Timishere »

Amor Vincit Omnia wrote: Fri Sep 10, 2021 6:03 pm You mention not being able to post in Sales Corner, Tim. That’s not so important. You can of course see it by now, and another of the rules is that all negotiations including offers and the swapping of addresses and bank details must be done via PM or email, definitely not on the thread.
Noted! I have one I want to sell (swap my red bezel retro diver for a blue one) so I was getting muddled!
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Re: Used vs new prices

Post by Kip »

Timishere wrote: Fri Sep 10, 2021 5:40 pm
Thanks Steve, I did look at that but I couldn't see the % depreciation based on age as the graphs only showed sales price by year. Maybe I missed something though!
While it is true that there are no percentages, When you look up an individual model you get the original and last prices at the bottom of the page.

See here for example. This would allow you to calculate an approximate percentage for a given model based on original/last pricing. The average overall resale is also listed at the top of the page.

All this info allows you to see average overall resale, resale averages per year, resale trends, units sold per year and original and last pricing all in one place.
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Re: Used vs new prices

Post by Timishere »

Thanks, Kip. That does make sense but I couldn't see where (i) the age of the watch was at point of sale and (ii) the new price at point of sale. However, I can see what that data isn't at all trackable so I now recognise I'm asking for the moon on a stick.

I guess it's a bit like the antique market (my mum has been buying and selling antiques for years) where there isn't really a "fair market price" for most things. It's a case of who is willing to pay what at that particular time, a bit like Steve said.

I also read somewhere that in some cases there are a handful of online second hand watch "supermarkets" who effectively set the market price which makes the market even more imperfect (assuming there is indirect collusion between those market makers). All quite interesting to someone new to the market dynamics and just reinforces I suppose that one should just be happy paying based on a personal valuation and never view these things of some kind of investment.

Thanks
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Re: Used vs new prices

Post by JAFO »

^^^
Most watches resell for less than the original cost price, so in general the SP is a trade off between the original price, age and condition. This rule of thumb gets distorted by the few brands that show price appreciation, which may or may not represent a temporary bubble.
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Re: Used vs new prices

Post by Timishere »

Yes, the purported Rolex scenario at the moment puts me in mind of bitcoin or tulips since with watches the underlying value is a lot lower than the notional market value. Difference being that mechanical watches are to my mind at least a bit magical.
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Re: Used vs new prices

Post by thomcat00 »

The Archive data is a helpful start, but as you can see among various watches, prices fluctuate and asking prices may have quite a range. In the space of just a few months, one model of CW I bought used has been listed at anywhere from 20% over what I paid, to one listed for about 25% below what I paid - and no takers! So I see I paid a decent price per the market, and definitely an acceptable price for me. With that kind of range it would be hard to have an expectation of predicting depreciation for a given model.

About half of my CW watches I acquired as used.
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