https://youtu.be/A_Kex7Dbps4?si=UDgRyeIPHazOMB8J
(Sorry, I can't get these embedded to show the videos)



Kieran on Top Tier Ticker did a decent review of CW as a brand in general, focussing on a compressor variant.

In the first few moments he notes that CWs turnover is getting on for twice that of Oris (and Nomos) but the Oris comparison surprised me. Can that really be true? Every jeweller's windows I look at has a decent display of Oris. I just struggle to think they are selling no more watches than CW achieve.

Entirely possibly with the recent price positioning. I think that a lot of luxury watch manufacturers have misread the market and will now struggle with sales as a result.

Edit. Thinking about it, I know one difference is that if Oris turnover is £19m, then that is their production cost plus profit, whereas CW £30m is a sales total, net of VAT, so there's a bit of apples and pears. Maybe CW and Oris are a similar size, which is still impressive.

I would question the Oris figure and where it came from. Either they have lost a lot of sales, he has the wrong company or it isn't turnover. Google and AI has a lot to answer for!

The topic with the Morgan Stanley report in 2023 had them around 75m chf other-brands/morgan-stanley-and-luxecon ... 63200.html

I wouldn't be surprised if CW were heading to a similar number of units as they used to be around 20,000 years ago and rapidly growing and Oris were at 52,000 in 2023. Even with the higher CW prices and hero models I would assume that the average unit price is still lower than Oris.

MarkingTime wrote: ↑Sat Feb 15, 2025 12:37 pm Entirely possibly with the recent price positioning. I think that a lot of luxury watch manufacturers have misread the market and will now struggle with sales as a result.

I do not know if CW has passed Oris sales (yet) but I am sure it will happen in time. I have rarely heard anyone mention CW and not mention "value" so maybe thy are taking over Oris value position in the watch world.

Oris has been moving upscale from a price perspective and it is no longer the "value" Swiss brand it once was. I was an Oris customer but am no longer due to the price increases. A basic ProPilot on strap is $2200 with an unregulated SW200 movement. One can purchase many better alternatives from CW for much less money. I have watch friends that feel the same way in that Oris is raising prices but not really doing anything new or different.

Interestingly (and if I remember correctly), at the October 2024 NYC Wind Up Watch Fair the CW booth was as large, if not larger, than the Oris booth. For the past few years Oris has been the "anchor brand" for the show but I think they are being overshadowed by CW.

MarkingTime wrote: ↑Sat Feb 15, 2025 12:37 pm Entirely possibly with the recent price positioning. I think that a lot of luxury watch manufacturers have misread the market and will now struggle with sales as a result.

Walking past my local Rolex AD, they windows are once again full of watches. Rewind a few years ago and the shelves were bare. Don't know if this is a supply chain consideration or a drop in demand.

CBMVic20 wrote: ↑Tue Feb 18, 2025 12:38 am

MarkingTime wrote: ↑Sat Feb 15, 2025 12:37 pm Entirely possibly with the recent price positioning. I think that a lot of luxury watch manufacturers have misread the market and will now struggle with sales as a result.

Walking past my local Rolex AD, they windows are once again full of watches. Rewind a few years ago and the shelves were bare. Don't know if this is a supply chain consideration or a drop in demand.

But not full of watches you can walk in and buy. They have already been allocated to a customer and will be released to the customer once the next delivery of the same or similar model has been received. Basically little different than has been the situation for the past 3 years, although it is now likely that a small number of the unpopular models will now be available for a random customer to purchase.

Neil

I don't fully understand how "corporate raids" work but some organisation somewhere must be looking at CW and thinking about a buy out?

tikkathree wrote: ↑Tue Feb 18, 2025 9:32 am I don't fully understand how "corporate raids" work but some organisation somewhere must be looking at CW and thinking about a buy out?

BGF invested several £million into Christopher Ward a few years ago to support CW's long-term growth strategy. Does that make CW more or less likely to become the target of a buy out?

tikkathree wrote: ↑Tue Feb 18, 2025 9:32 am I don't fully understand how "corporate raids" work but some organisation somewhere must be looking at CW and thinking about a buy out?

A corporate raid would typically be of a publicly listed company where over time another company buys up the stock so gradually gains some form of control. It doesn’t necessarily mean having more than 50% of the shares as a company’s incorporation documents may define other thresholds which give veto rights over decision-making (e.g., 20%}. There do however tend to be regulatory notifications required once stock holdings in public companies go over certain percentages.

In CWL’s case they are a private company so it would take willing sale of shares by one or more of the existing shareholders for someone else to get any ownership, making an unwanted takeover less likely. Again, smaller shareholders may still have some veto rights.

Another option in the future might be a public listing whereby the company’s shares are floated on a stock exchange. This might be an exit strategy for the existing owners.

I don’t know too much about the existing shareholders or their respective shares (I’ve read a little but it pre-dates my strong interest in the brand) but might have a little look when I get time, out of interest.

It perhaps comes back to the directors/shareholders deciding on their exit strategy, if there is one.

The changes in the last budget relating to IHT may affect the decision also. It's increasingly hard to avoid paying a substantial amount of IHT on a private company.

One way is a public listing, another way is to find an interested buyer, and a third a management buy out by employees.

I think I posted this before, but Roy Gandy, who owned Rega HiFi gave away his company to his employees, so that's a fourth way.

https://www.channelnews.com.au/gift-fro ... o-workers/