How important is the “Bel Canto effect”?

How important is the Bel Canto effect (BCE) to CW? What does sit really mean in the short and long term?

The C1 Bel Canto Azzurro Blue, a 300 pc. LE, was launched on Nov. 1, 2022 and sold out in 7 ½ hours. Due to the overwhelming demand, the Verde Green model (also a 300 pc. LE), that was not due for release until March of 2023, was launched 3 days later and sold out in just over 2 hours. Most of you know that subsequent releases have since been sold on preorder for late 2023 delivery. Currently only the Azzurro has been shipped.

The C1 Bel Canto Azzurro Blue was priced at £2995/$3595 - £3305/$3975.
As of this writing I have recorded 11 resales with a range of $3595-$10205 with an average of $6948.
Effectively this is double the original price on the secondary market.

Now let’s look at the C63 Sealander TradeTime™. This is a bespoke model of 500 pieces that was released on January 11, 2023. It was launched via an email sent to TradeView members who were also offered a 40% discount.

The C63 Sealander TradeTime™. Was listed at £850/$1025 -£995-$1205.
As of this writing I have recorded 41 resales with a range of $1314-$19700 with an average of $2929. If you deduct a single sale anomaly of $19,700 you still end up with an average of $2509. I really find this astounding especially when the discount is calculated in!

Both these models have unique features. The C1 Bel Canto is truly unique for its price range. I think this is more than a “Halo“ model at this point, so the demand is not utterly surprising, although the secondary market pricing is.

The C63 Sealander TradeTime™. resale market is truly perplexing to me. Is it a result of the BCE? Is the market feature (an industry first) truly that unique? Is it strictly an anomaly? Is the BCE a long range effect on the CW market overall or is it restricted to these models currently? Possibly it is just to early to tell.

We have seen very short term spikes with new models/LE’s in the past but nothing like this that I can recall.

What do you think?

I’m not excited by the “Bel Canto effect”. It lends itself to more questions than answers as to where CW is heading. As for the C63 Sealander TradeTime™, more money than sense comes to mind.

I think the general reaction to the BC watch within the industry has been very important for the brand, irrespective of the watch itself. I think it demonstrates that all CW watches inherently represent good value. That probably also explains the success of LEs like the Atoll and the Sunrise, and I expect the 3 new graduated colours, as well as the Tradetime. It might be a bit harder for general releases as there's not quite so much fear of missing out.

All of these watches are probably at least half the price of any competitors swiss watch. Many makes are 3 or more times the price for rather marginal improvement, if any. Even at the inflated resale prices, they often are no dearer than the competition, although some of the resale prices are certainly surprising.

I like the Oris Aquis for example, but it's really hard to justify buying one when the very attractive Pro 300 is half the price or even less.

The Bel Canto is a one off and I don't think there is any rational explanation for the TradeTime.

I'm not sure what anyone can make of the recent CW releases without inside information as to what their motivations and expectations are for LEs and standard product lines.

CW have released an all time high model whilst at the same time releasing the Atoll, Graphite and Trade Time (inc discount) all below the retail prices of their closest regular product equivalents.

I hope the company grows in terms of infrastructure to meet the increased product, demand, quality control and customer service.

I think we will always see regular, open models selling under retail on the used market but by maybe not as much as before.

Where CW go and the success is very much down to the CEOs ego and venture capitalist investors which could equally lead to boom or bust. It is a pivotal time for CW I think.

Potentially desirable object released in tiny quantity. Interesting.

Boom. Gone in hours. Now very desirable.

Wait. A few available at double MRP. Desirability goes through roof.

What made it so desirable? The product itself? The limited quantity? The initial reaction and sell-out? The actions of resellers? Probably a spiralling effect fuelled by all of those things.

Good for the company? I should think so. The next big release will have people queueing up, I imagine.
Good for the resellers? I should think so. The next big release will have THEM queueing up, I imagine.

Not so good for the people who procrastinated and now find themselves between the devil and the deep blue sea, but whose fault is that?

PS. That’s a simplistic Layman’s view because I know nothing about marketing or retail.

This is a curious thread. I read the title and thought it was about how the Bel Canto might impact the brand. I read Kip’s post, and that suggested the thread’s about the impact on resale prices. I suppose they’re related.

I don’t know anything about market pricing, secondary markets, and all that, so I’ll not offer up my worthless analysis on all that.

I just hope this doesn’t become like my favorite band has just put out and album that exploded and now everyone is suddenly I fan. Now they’re no longer playing the smaller venues that offered up intimate shows but are selling out much bigger arenas. Doesn’t matter though because demand is so great that it’s impossible to get tickets to those shows anyway.

And these new fans are a**holes anyway. They only know the new hits but know nothing of the deep cuts. They don’t even know anything about the original lead singer, you know? Or even worse, they read the Wikipedia article and think they know everything about the band, my band. Man, the new fans have ruined everything. I can’t even find the early albums on vinyl anymore, and when I do the prices are ridiculous.

In short, is the secret out? Maybe I’m overthinking?

I’ve no idea what questions a company like CW will be asking at a time like this. Two recent ‘spikes’ - for the Bel Canto and the TradeTime have increased everyone’s pulses a bit.

It’s natural that many people now want to analyse the spikes and figure out why they happened, and what they might mean for the future. But if they’re asking these questions in order to try and recreate more spikes (ie make more money) they’re chasing the wrong thing. Disney makes an astronomical fortune by recreating spikes. That’s why we’re watching Shrek 27 and Frozen 15. Generating a spin-off spike every year is not true creativity. CW might certainly go in this direction but It wouldn’t be very interesting.


I worry a bit when I hear Mike France say that they want to be a ‘big’ independent watch company. If this becomes an overriding aim then I think the early creativity of CW as a company might be lost.
The working culture, encouragement of curiosity and creativity that allowed the Bel Canto to appear are of far far more value than the Bel Canto itself. CW should be asking questions about how these factors arose, so they can be nurtured.

jkbarnes wrote: ↑Sun Feb 12, 2023 2:44 pm I just hope this doesn’t become like my favorite band has just put out and album that exploded and now everyone is suddenly I fan. Now they’re no longer playing the smaller venues that offered up intimate shows but are selling out much bigger arenas. Doesn’t matter though because demand is so great that it’s impossible to get tickets to those shows anyway.

And these new fans are a**holes anyway. They only know the new hits but know nothing of the deep cuts. They don’t even know anything about the original lead singer, you know? Or even worse, they read the Wikipedia article and think they know everything about the band, my band. Man, the new fans have ruined everything. I can’t even find the early albums on vinyl anymore, and when I do the prices are ridiculous.

We’ll Andrew if that does turn out to be the case…

It wouldn’t be the first watch brand similarly afflicted.

CW would be in good company.

Neil

missF wrote: ↑Sun Feb 12, 2023 2:47 pm But if they’re asking these questions in order to try and recreate more spikes (ie make more money) they’re chasing the wrong thing. Disney makes an astronomical fortune by recreating spikes. That’s why we’re watching Shrek 27 and Frozen 15. Generating a spin-off spike every year is not true creativity. CW might certainly go in this direction but It wouldn’t be very interesting.

Excellent point! Will they be Disney or Pixar (pre-Disney purchase)? It comes down to will the creative side drive the boat or the money side?

jkbarnes wrote: ↑Sun Feb 12, 2023 2:54 pm Excellent point! Will they be Disney or Pixar (pre-Disney purchase)? It comes down to will the creative side drive the boat or the money side?

I’m pretty certain you need both. How that might be balanced is for people far smarter than me. But I think it’s the right question to ask

jkbarnes wrote: ↑Sun Feb 12, 2023 2:44 pm This is a curious thread. I read the title and thought it was about how the Bel Canto might impact the brand. I read Kip’s post, and that suggested the thread’s about the impact on resale prices. I suppose they’re related.

I don’t know anything about market pricing, secondary markets, and all that, so I’ll not offer up my worthless analysis on all that.

I just hope this doesn’t become like my favorite band has just put out and album that exploded and now everyone is suddenly I fan. Now they’re no longer playing the smaller venues that offered up intimate shows but are selling out much bigger arenas. Doesn’t matter though because demand is so great that it’s impossible to get tickets to those shows anyway.

And these new fans are a**holes anyway. They only know the new hits but know nothing of the deep cuts. They don’t even know anything about the original lead singer, you know? Or even worse, they read the Wikipedia article and think they know everything about the band, my band. Man, the new fans have ruined everything. I can’t even find the early albums on vinyl anymore, and when I do the prices are ridiculous.

In short, is the secret out? Maybe I’m overthinking?

Nice one Andrew.
John Fogerty wasn't even from Cajun country you know.
(Maybe that's not quite the right genre)

missF wrote: ↑Sun Feb 12, 2023 2:56 pm

jkbarnes wrote: ↑Sun Feb 12, 2023 2:54 pm Excellent point! Will they be Disney or Pixar (pre-Disney purchase)? It comes down to will the creative side drive the boat or the money side?

I’m pretty certain you need both. How that might be balanced is for people far smarter than me. But I think it’s the right question to ask

I think it all depends on what the goal is. Of course you need both, but I suppose there’s a tipping point in growth where the money side inevitably takes over from the creative side. One sees this in any business.

A1soknownas wrote: ↑Sun Feb 12, 2023 2:03 pm The Bel Canto is a one off and I don't think there is any rational explanation for the TradeTime.

I'm not sure what anyone can make of the recent CW releases without inside information as to what their motivations and expectations are for LEs and standard product lines.

CW have released an all time high model whilst at the same time releasing the Atoll, Graphite and Trade Time (inc discount) all below the retail prices of their closest regular product equivalents.

I hope the company grows in terms of infrastructure to meet the increased product, demand, quality control and customer service.

I think we will always see regular, open models selling under retail on the used market but by maybe not as much as before.

Where CW go and the success is very much down to the CEOs ego and venture capitalist investors which could equally lead to boom or bust. It is a pivotal time for CW I think.

I thought that as well. The LE "bargains" must make it a bit harder to sell the general product lines.

JAFO wrote: ↑Sun Feb 12, 2023 3:08 pm
I thought that as well. The LE "bargains" must make it a bit harder to sell the general product lines.

Or does the respective bump in brand awareness, dollar for dollar, make this a far cheaper option than making a television ad? Hard for us to say without seeing the internal numbers. But my take on the spring lower priced LEs has always been that it was a marketing exercise.