The pre-Christmas link to "pre-order your Bel Canto for 2023" seems to have gone dead in a "SOLD OUT" way: I can't remembr how many there were going to be in each of the four 2023 colours but well done CW.

Strange. I thought they were going to be offered to the public as well. Maybe the reaction was so strong they can't handle any more, which is surely good news for the company.

My understanding was that the 4 new colours were offered to folks that had been on the 'wait / expressions of interest list' and the 2nd Jan (extended to the 4th subsequently) cut-off so they could get a build allocation with a deposit. So that time has now passed.

The BC then becomes a regular model after that. Which is probably towards the end of the year as they will have a lot of watches to build now and at least they have a number to build to. It's a big shift from the originally anticipated 25 pieces per week for a total of 600 watches across blue and green.

Gosh it would be interesting to know what the new number they are building in 2023 is. Even if only half the EOI's of 10,000 plus go ahead, that is a quantum shift for specialty suppliers.

Noush wrote: ↑Fri Jan 06, 2023 6:38 pm My understanding was that the 4 new colours were offered to folks that had been on the 'wait / expressions of interest list' and the 2nd Jan (extended to the 4th subsequently) cut-off so they could get a build allocation with a deposit. So that time has now passed.

The BC then becomes a regular model after that. Which is probably towards the end of the year as they will have a lot of watches to build now and at least they have a number to build to. It's a big shift from the originally anticipated 25 pieces per week for a total of 600 watches across blue and green.

Gosh it would be interesting to know what the new number they are building in 2023 is. Even if only half the EOI's of 10,000 plus go ahead, that is a quantum shift for specialty suppliers.

Thank you for your points

I have been hoping they share details regarding how many wait list customers ordered a Bel Canto (like me) and the beak down regarding the 4 new colors.

I would imagine they are sorting out the logistics for building these and once they do, will open the order books for round 3.

What will be interesting for round 3 will be if they offer any new colors like a fiery red or perhaps not continue producing any of the new 4 colors (complete speculation there) and if they increase pricing for future orders (let's guess to how much, say $5,000 on a strap and $5,500 on the bracelet).

Mr France said in the interview with watchfinder, they are now in 5 figures people signed up. He also said, he believes that 90% of the signed up will hold to the order…

Has wrote: ↑Fri Jan 06, 2023 6:59 pm Mr France said in the interview with watchfinder, they are now in 5 figures people signed up. He also said, he believes that 90% of the signed up will hold to the order…

Right, that led to the general speculation on the volume they will be producing in round 2

I still wonder how many of the LE Blue and Green watches were produced up front (i.e. do they have a backlog to work through prior to getting going on the 4 new colors for round 2 of production)

I saw one blue BC listed for sale and I think it was marked 151 of 300 on the back

Just my take - I reckon that a not insignificant number who have paid a deposit will fall by the wayside and have the deposit refunded….

No point paying up, once they see the premium they were expecting for flipping, starts to disappear.

Neil

You make a very good point, Neil.
I expect there will be a number of these 4 new colours available when the BC goes on general sale from the prospectors who 'stop prospecting'.

I think the notion of 90% of EOI's going ahead is not realistic. I'm one who didn't as it's quite enough money, value as well it might be, that it had to be 'right' and the 4 new colours weren't there for me. The blue LE nailed it for me, the others not so much. Second best is what it is...

nbg wrote: ↑Fri Jan 06, 2023 7:22 pm Just my take - I reckon that a not insignificant number who have paid a deposit will fall by the wayside and have the deposit refunded….

No point paying up, once they see the premium they were expecting for flipping, starts to disappear.

Neil

So this is fun speculation

Hopefully most of the folks who signed up are watch junkies (like me) and look forward to owning a BC.

What if another scenario plays out?

The LE pool was an itty bitty 600 pieces. Assuming 500 buyers just wanted the watch and the only flipping they do is for burgers and pancakes, or perhaps a house here and there.

So that leaves 100 pieces to get moved and many of those will go to happy homes on the first, second of third flip.

So then maybe you have 30 left and folks just offer them at make me sell type pricing (i.e. more likely to move the market up than down). Maybe you get another 20 out of the woodwork enticed by the chance to make a buck so say 50 up for grabs.

This lasts 3-4 months until the new colors start to hit the market.

By then we either have a bigger pent up demand or to your point, a fading from glory. If the demand is there, the new color owners can price between list and whatever the LEs are sitting at and see how the fish bite.

Considering the general excitement around the watch (now) and the lack of a like for like other chimer in the space, we could have some entertainment in the secondary market for a while.

Grand Seiko, my own thoughts are that demand will taper off as the novelty of the watch starts to fade with time, possibly within the next 6 months.

I don't say I lose sleep thinking about this but I wonder how many current owners (as opposed to orderees awaiting a delivery) are still in thrall to the hourly chime and how many of those watches are being positioned for resale? It can't just be the flippers, the speculators who have "had the experience" who are now ready to move on" but there are likely to be a few time-served CW fans out there too.

tikkathree wrote: ↑Fri Jan 06, 2023 9:11 pm Grand Seiko, my own thoughts are that demand will taper off as the novelty of the watch starts to fade with time, possibly within the next 6 months.

I don't say I lose sleep thinking about this but I wonder how many current owners (as opposed to orderees awaiting a delivery) are still in thrall to the hourly chime and how many of those watches are being positioned for resale? It can't just be the flippers, the speculators who have "had the experience" who are now ready to move on" but there are likely to be a few time-served CW fans out there too.

Agreed, folks get bored with stuff and move on

I am more familiar with this trait in the auto space than the watch space

Just fun to see how it plays out

Grand Seiko wrote: ↑Fri Jan 06, 2023 7:16 pm
I still wonder how many of the LE Blue and Green watches were produced up front (i.e. do they have a backlog to work through prior to getting going on the 4 new colors for round 2 of production)

The build schedule for the original Azzuro Blue was made public. Three hundred watches were to be produced. First batch of 100 ready for launch in early November 2022. Second batch of 150 to be made by end of December 2022. Third batch of 50 to be finished in early 2023 so that production of the Green one could start. I believe initial deliveries of the green were scheduled for March 2023.

albionphoto wrote: ↑Fri Jan 06, 2023 10:06 pm

Grand Seiko wrote: ↑Fri Jan 06, 2023 7:16 pm
I still wonder how many of the LE Blue and Green watches were produced up front (i.e. do they have a backlog to work through prior to getting going on the 4 new colors for round 2 of production)

The build schedule for the original Azzuro Blue was made public. Three hundred watches were to be produced. First batch of 100 ready for launch in early November 2022. Second batch of 150 to be made by end of December 2022. Third batch of 50 to be finished in early 2023 so that production of the Green one could start. I believe initial deliveries of the green were scheduled for March 2023.

Thanks very much for these details, it does feel like the folks at the company play straight with their customers

JAFO wrote:Strange. I thought they were going to be offered to the public as well. Maybe the reaction was so strong they can't handle any more, which is surely good news for the company.

They will, but not yet. This is a copy paste from my Bel Canto email.

•We will let you know when you can expect delivery but anticipate orders will be despatched
between June and December
• Only when your watch delivery time is confirmed
will these new colours go on general sale.

Based on that I would say I would say delivery estimates some point in late Q1/March and goes on general sale/order from June onwards for a 2024 delivery.

albionphoto wrote: ↑Fri Jan 06, 2023 10:06 pm [....... .... I believe initial deliveries of the green were scheduled for March 2023.

I've been told its May. '23 for my #1 Green.